The IMC published its 23rd report this week on the paramilitary situation in Northern Ireland. The statistics speak for themselves and we’ll return to them later. However, the most startling (and continuous) assumption made throughout the report is the centrality of criminality to the Northern Ireland paramilitary landscape. This snapshot represents a rather astonishing historical transformation.
Let’s jump back nearly thirty years and the struggle of Irish republican prisoners against British “criminalisation” policy. Often attributed as a driving force behind the Hunger Strikes, the British attempts to “criminalise” republican “prisoners of war” initiated a prolonged battle of wills between republican forces and British policy in Northern Ireland. Given the reports indications, there seems to be a discontinuity.
So what does the report tell us?
Well the regurgitated phrases that littered the Irish and British Press were all too common, Republicans remain a constant if minor threat, specific targets, fear of Loyalist reprisals, etc, etc. Let me take two very important, and yet unreported, quotes/insights from the report:
1) Skills are more significant than mere numbers.
Given the media’s euphoria over the minority of the threat (no matter how correct) this contradiction conditions such glee. Given the rise of recent dissident activity, this insight is crucial. The overall tone of the report needs contextualising. Yes, the threat is minority based but it is productive. And it is productive because they got skills. The recent spate of bombings, primarily aimed at the PSNI, illustrate that the dissidents now have a capable bomb maker in their ranks, a worrying thought. This is where the focus must lie, remove the skills and you go a long way to removing the threats.
2) Dissident republicans and loyalists make up the threat.
The report identifies but fails to develop the exact nature of the threat facing Northern Ireland. The information provided on shootings and assaults indicates this flaw. Power is again becoming communal. The rise (65%) of assault casaulties in loyalist areas in comparison to the 2008-2009 period represents this. It usually does not make headline news, but tell that to the communities and victims of such attacks.
Overall, the euphoria is misplaced. Hard work has been done by both sides and recognised in the report. Political process has played its part (especially devolution of policing and justice), but the road is long and winding. The report tells us the obvious, it just doesn’t tell us how to approach such threats. The answer remains in what is being continually transformed, history.
You can access the report here.
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