OUTPOST

The past few weeks have marked a major culmination in dissident activity in Northern Ireland. This blog has long identified these threats over the past few months, including an interpretative view on the skills which dominate any such dissident group.

However, after last weeks attack, the gameplan seems to have changed somewhat regarding the political intervention with dissidents. The media have been quick to illustrate this or perhaps more pertinently the powers that be in Northern Ireland have been quick to utilise the media to identify the gameplan. However, the usually controversial, Martin McGuinness seems to have earlier portrayed a somewhat problematic interpretation of this new gameplan.

Earlier this week, PSNI Chief Constable Matt Baggot was repeatedly quoted advocating a combination of policing and political dialogue to tackle dissidents. Apart from the obvious condemnation rhetoric associated with such attacks, his input represented a truly refreshing appraisal of the challenges ahead. Indeed, it invoked the spirit of the peace process itself, as pointed out here earlier this week.

Enter, Mr. McGuinness.

His previous claim that dissidents are in secret talks with the Irish and British governments somewhat undermines the transformational framework that appeared in Baggot’s approach. If McGuinness’ claims are consistent then there appears a distinct lack of progress with the engagement of dissidents. Their activity is on a upward curve, rendering any argument for successful engagement somewhat dubious. The contradictory murmurings emanating from the North are nothing new but in their contradictions lays opportunities.

It seems clear that the game plan has changed as regards dissidents. Dialogue is being sought and policing remains an important constitent in this dynamic. Also given the rise of activity, the social and political tapestry of Northern Ireland is again uniting. The last time this occured, peace was established. Hope remains that dissidents can be subdued, it may take another massive effort/risk from people with their political landscape. They’ve done it before, no reason why they can’t again.